Not a Time to be Discouraged.

Its football season and most are happy to see the regular officials back, at least until they blow an important call that goes against their team.  Many participate in office football pools.  We used to have one where I work and many, including myself, used to poor over information like, offensive and defensive ratings, injury reports, and previous match-ups between the teams in order to predict the winners.  However, someone who did not follow football and just picked the winners by picking their favorite city would often win the pool. 

So what does this have to do with politics?  It seems that everyone in this election cycle is conducting polls.  Each of these polling organizations uses their own methodology to try to predict who will win this election.  Since there is no standard for polling methodology, the poll results vary substantially.  People following these polls find themselves on an emotional roller coaster.  One day their candidate is well on his or her way to victory only to have another poll showing him or her losing by a landslide. 

Jim Geraghty in an interview with John McLaughlin (1) explained how campaigns try to sway polling results.  Pollster try to determine likely voters to get a more accurate result but in order to determine this, they need to determine the likely turnout for each party in the election.  Many pollsters do this by looking at turnout in the previous presidential election.  However, there are flaws with this methodology.  For example, the 2004 election had an even turnout of Republicans and Democrats.  Bush won 51% to 48% but had the turnout matched the Democrat +4 edge of the 2000 election, Kerry would have been elected President.  (1)

The 2008 turnout was +7 for Democrats.  Many pollsters in this election are applying this methodology and come up with an Obama victory.  However, there was an election in 2010 with a heavy Republican turnout so we must question whether the turnout will be substantially different in 2012 than it was in 2008. 

Liberal pollsters believe the 2010 election was a fluke.  Former Republican Senator Bob Bennett pronounced the Tea Party was receding in this election.  However, a few hours later Ted Cruz of Texas, a Tea Party candidate, was celebrating victory in a primary runoff election for the U.S. Senate. (2)  We also have to consider the massive turnout in support of Chick-Fil-A because of their support for traditional marriage. (3)

I believe the pollsters using the 2008 election turnout in this election are not properly sampling the electorate.  They are missing one ingredient that numbers cannot mention, the passion of an electorate that has endured almost four years of Obama’s failed policies.  Almost 23 million people remain unemployed and many others fear they will be next.  People have seen their retirement savings shrink and their home values plummet leaving many with homes underwater.  They are tired of hearing that it’s Bush’s fault.  That may have worked the first year but Obama has had almost a full term to fix the problem with little in results.  Instead of focusing on solving the country’s problems, they see their President busy campaigning, playing golf, going on expensive vacations, and hobnobbing with celebrities.  Therefore, I believe the turnout this election will be virtually even if not in favor of Republicans. 

Instead of focusing on skewed polls, I encourage everyone to focus on getting out the vote.  Make sure to vote and make sure everyone you know who does not like the direction our country is going in goes out to vote.  If they have a problem getting to the polls on Election Day, drive them there or get an absentee ballot for them. 

Pollsters are just like people trying to predict the outcome of this week’s NFL games, they are trying to predict the future and like the NFL prognosticators, are often wrong.  The players in the game determine the outcome of the game.  The voters are the players in this game and will determine the outcome this election.  So let’s get in the game by working for our candidate to get out the vote and making sure to vote ourselves.  This is a game our country cannot afford to lose. 

1. Geraghty, Jim. What John McLaughlin Sees in the Polls Right Now. www.nationalreview.com. [Online] The National Review, September 21, 2012. [Cited: September 28, 2012.] http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/327982/what-john-mclaughlin-sees-polls-right-now.

2. Warren, Michael. The Tea Party Is Alive and Well. www.weeklystandard.com. [Online] The Weekly Standard, August 13, 2012. [Cited: September 28, 2012.] http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/tea-party-alive-and-well_649303.html.

3. Geraghty, Jim. The Great Chick-fil-a War of 2012. nationalreview.com. [Online] National Review Online, August 2, 2012. [Cited: August 7, 2012.] http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/312956/great-chick-fil-war-2012.