After the devastation of Watergate, the Republican Party
found itself in a crisis, which became evident with the loss of Gerald Ford in
the 1976 election. (1) Under the Presidency of Jimmy Carter, the
nation’s economy fell into a deep recession resulting in high interest rates, double-digit
unemployment, and double-digit inflation.
(2)
The nation was also in a protracted
hostage situation in Iran. (3) This resulted in the American people turning
Carter out office and electing Ronald Reagan.
(4)
Reagan won election promising smaller government, lower
taxes, and a strong national defense.
The nation weary from the Watergate Scandal, tired of the failed
economic policies of the Carter Administration, and seeing the inability of our
nation to respond to the taking of hostages in Iran, elected Regan to office in
a landslide. The nation hoped that his
policies would turn the nation around and get the U.S. back to the position of
greatness it once possessed. (5)
Since the two landslide victories of Reagan, there have been
seven presidential elections. Of those
seven elections, the Republicans have only managed to win 2 popular votes and 3
electoral victories. (6) What happened that caused the dominate
Republican Party to be unable to win in presidential elections?
The answer lies in what consultants typically tell
candidates running for office. Most
political consultants work by the 40-40-20 rule. This rule states in every election there are
40 percent of the electorate that will vote Democrat and 40 percent of the
electorate that will vote Republican no matter what. (7) The remaining 20 percent or swing voters are
what the candidates spend most of their time and money trying to win over to
their side. In the 2012 election, Mitt
Romney did an excellent job of winning over this 20 percent by winning a
majority of the independent vote. However,
Mitt Romney lost both the popular and electoral votes. Therefore, we must ask what went wrong.
The answer lies in who stayed home in 2012. According to the table below, all
demographics had increases in 2012 except for white voters.
There is a fallacy in the 40-40-20 rule. The fallacy lies in the assumption that 40
percent of the electorate will vote Republican no matter what. The truth is that this assumption breaks down
if many of the 40 percent stay home. The
electoral math reveals that the Republican Party needs to do a better job of
shoring up and turning out its 40% in presidential elections.
Unfortunately, the current debate over immigration reform
reveals that the Republican Party leadership does not get it. They support a path to citizenship for those
here illegally believing they will be able to convince them to register and
vote republican. (9) We have been down this road before and what
happened was more Hispanic Democrat voters.
Many believed that when Ronald Reagan signed the amnesty
bill, Hispanics would vote Republican out of gratitude for the amnesty given to
them by the legislation. The table below
however, tells a different story.
--1980 Jimmy Carter, 56% Ronald
Reagan, 35% +21--1984 Walter Mondale, 61% Ronald Reagan, 37% +24
--1988 Michael Dukakis, 69% George H.W. Bush, 30% +39
--1992 Bill Clinton, 61% George H.W. Bush, 25% +36
--1996 Bill Clinton, 72% Bob Dole, 21% +51
--2000 Al Gore, 62% George W. Bush, 35% +27
--2004 John Kerry, 58% George W. Bush, 40% +18
--2008 Barack Obama, 67% John McCain, 31% +36
--2012 Barack Obama, 71% Mitt Romney, 27% +44
The highest percentage of the Hispanic vote any republican
has been able to win since Regan signed the amnesty bill is 40 percent by
President George W. Bush in 2004, which still represented an 18-percentage
point loss to Democrat John Kerry. These
numbers tell an entirely different story then the one the Republican Leadership
is trying to feed us.
In order for Republicans to begin winning presidential
elections, they need a different strategy that will get the 6.6 million white
voters that stayed home in 2012 back out to the polls to vote for the
Republican candidate. In each Wednesdays
post over the next several weeks I will be outlining what I believe the
Republican Party needs to do to get back to its winning ways. I encourage each of you to add your comments
to the postings and share the link with your friends. I am also going to email the party leader in
my state and urge everyone to do the same in their own state. I found my State party leadership by typing
in the search term RNC Arizona to get the contact information for my local
Republican leadership.
I will also emailing the national leadership and urge everyone
to do the same. Use the following link
to email the national RNC. http://www.gop.com/contact-us/ .
Let’s get in their face and remind them that their plans for
rebuilding the Republican Party are suicide plans. The party is losing because it is losing its
base. We have a plan that will energize
the base and restore the party back to the glory days of the 1980’s. If the current leadership fails to ignore the
base, we need leadership that will listen.
Otherwise, the Republican Party is destined to go the way of the Wig
Party.
1. Authentic History. the 1976 Presidential
Election. www.authentichistory.com. [Online] AHC. [Cited: August 13,
2013.] http://www.authentichistory.com/1974-1992/1-ford/4-1976election/.
2. On The Issues.
Jimmy Carter on Budget & Economy. www.ontheissues.org. [Online] On
The Issues. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://www.ontheissues.org/Celeb/Jimmy_Carter_Budget_&_Economy.htm.
3. Sick, Gary.
The Carter Administration. iranprimer.usip.org. [Online] United States
Institute of Peace. [Cited: August 13, 2013.]
http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/carter-administration-0.
4. home, BBC.
1980: Reagan Beats Carter in Landslide. news.bbc.co.uk. [Online] BBC,
November 4, 1980. [Cited: August 13, 2013.]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/4/newsid_3192000/3192279.stm.
5. Republican Party.
The Republican Party Platform of 1980. www.presidency.ucsb.edu. [Online]
The American Presidency Project, July 15, 1980. [Cited: August 13, 2013.]
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25844.
6. ProCon.org.
Presidential Election History from 1789 to 2008. 2008election.procon.org. [Online]
[Cited: August 13, 2013.]
http://2008election.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=001565.
7. The Erstwhile
Conservative. The 40-40-20 Rule. duanegraham.wordpress.com. [Online]
The Erstwhile Conservative. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://duanegraham.wordpress.com/2010/11/06/the-40-40-20-rule/.
8. Trende, Sean.
The Case of the Missing White Voters. www.realcleapolitics.com. [Online]
Real Clear Politics, November 8, 2012. [Cited: July 5, 2013.]
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106-2.html.
9. Lee, Tony.
KARL ROVE, 100+ GOP DONORS SEND LETTER TO REPUBLICANS URGING IMMIGRATION
REFORM. www.breitbart.com. [Online] Breitbart News, July 30, 2013.
[Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/07/30/Karl-Rove-100-Donors-Send-Letter-to-GOP-Members-of-Congress-Urging-Immigration-Reform.
10. Free Republic.
The Hispanic Vote in Presidential Elections, 1980-2012. www.freerepublic.com.
[Online] Free Republic, November 7, 2012. [Cited: August 13, 2013.]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2958571/posts.
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