The Republican Path to Victory is not a Path to Citizenship

I am an accounting professional and as such try to get individuals and business clients to pay attention to the bottom line.  Unfortunately, businesses and individuals often come up with some idea that is going to generate revenue but do not pay attention to how much they will have to spend to generate that revenue.  Often, the accountant has to deliver bad news that the cost of the project is more than the revenue it is going to generate.  The accountant then has to advise them not to proceed with the project.  

Politicians and the government are often guilty of the same failure to pay attention to the bottom line.  This is especially true when it comes to the unemployment numbers and the numbers used by politicians to justify a path to citizenship for those in our country illegally. 

The Department of Labor released the unemployment numbers for June.  The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.6% and there were 195,000 jobs added.  On the surface, this appears good but when we dig deeper to the bottom line, we discover that an additional 206,000 left the workforce in June meaning that we had a net loss of 11,000 people participating in the workforce.  (1)  Of course, since those leaving the workforce are no longer considered unemployed, we would expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged but a truer picture of the state of the economy is that more people out of the workforce means more people potentially going on Food Stamps or Social Security Disability. 

Likewise, politicians, especially the Republican Leadership, are failing to pay attention to the bottom line when they calculate the numbers on immigration.  Both Republicans and Democrats want a path to citizenship included in any immigration reform or border security legislation. (2) Democrats are actually being more honest in their reason for seeking a path to citizenship.  They see the numbers of Hispanics that traditionally vote democrat, especially in presidential elections and see an opportunity to register more democrat voters.  When I look at the results of presidential elections since 1980, I have to agree with them.

Percentage of Hispanic votes:

--1980 Jimmy Carter, 56% Ronald Reagan, 35% +21

--1984 Walter Mondale, 61% Ronald Reagan, 37% +24

--1988 Michael Dukakis, 69% George H.W. Bush, 30% +39

--1992 Bill Clinton, 61% George H.W. Bush, 25% +36

--1996 Bill Clinton, 72% Bob Dole, 21% +51

--2000 Al Gore, 62% George W. Bush, 35% +27

--2004 John Kerry, 58% George W. Bush, 40% +18

--2008 Barack Obama, 67% John McCain, 31% +36

--2012 Barack Obama, 71% Mitt Romney, 27% +44

They calculate that a potential 11 million illegals gaining citizenship where 71% may vote democrat as they did in the last election would translate into 7.81 million more democrat voters and only 2.97 million additional republican voters. 

Republicans however believe they can gain most of these potential voters because they believe the only reason these Hispanics vote heavily Democrat is that they hate Republicans because they are opposed to immigration.  Their theory appears to be true if we are to look at recent polling among Hispanics who would be more likely to vote Republican if Republicans supported a path to citizenship (3) but once again when we dig deeper to the bottom line, the Republicans stand to lose more voters than they will gain in the Hispanic community. 

According to Real Clear Politics (4) The white vote count in 2012 decreased 6.8 million votes from the 2008 total while the vote count for African Americans, Hispanics, and all other demographics actually increased.  The popular vote margin of victory for Obama was around 5 million.  (5) It is possible Obama would have still eked out a popular vote victory in 2012 had the white vote turned out, but the popular vote is not what elects the President.  Therefore, it is possible that a greater turnout of the white vote would have benefited Romney in key swing states like Ohio and given him an Electoral College victory.  (4)

If the Republican Party leadership continues to only support candidates supporting a path to citizenship, they could create apathy among conservatives, resulting in even greater numbers of them staying home in the next election.  The Republican leadership needs to stop listening to consultants advising them that the path to victory in presidential elections is in courting Hispanics, take a lesson from Democrats, and focus on energizing their base. 

The massive victory by Republicans in the 2010 election was the result of an energized base that turned out in droves to elect conservatives to Congress.  Unfortunately, this energy was sapped by IRS investigations and the failure of the Republican Party to nominate a candidate for president that could energize the base.  In order for the Republican Party to begin winning Presidential Elections, they must:

1)       End open primaries that allow Democrats to elect moderate republican candidates.

2)      Welcome and support the Tea Party and other conservative groups into the “Republican Party big tent.”

3)      Hire new consultants with winning track records instead of hiring the same consultants with losing track records. 

There is talk of a third party.  In fact, Sarah Palin has hinted at the formation of a third party (6) and recently has even hinted at leaving the Republican Party.  (7) I do not believe a third party is the answer for it will only serve to split the Republican Party vote insuring Democrat victories in perpetuity.  Sarah Palin understands this and her statement in an effort to wake up a slumbering Republican Party that has lost touch with its base. 

The path to victory for the Republican Party is in energizing its base and that is where we come in.  We must support conservative candidates for Senate and The House in 2014 with the goal gaining Republican majorities in both houses of Congress and increasing the number of conservatives in both houses.  This is what we did in 2010 and I believe it will work in 2014.

In the 2012 Republican primaries there were several conservative candidates on the ballot.  These candidates won a majority of the votes in most of the primaries but no one candidate could emerge as the nominee because of the splitting of the vote amongst all the candidates.  Conservatives need to rally around one candidate and help him or her win the nomination in 2016.  This is exactly what conservatives did in 1980 by supporting Ronald Reagan and the result was a landslide victory. 

Join me in urging the Republican Party to get back to its winning ways by energizing its base instead of ignoring it.

1. Breitbart News. UNEMPLOYMENT UNCHANGED AT 7.6%. www.breitbart.com. [Online] Breitbart News, July 5, 2013. [Cited: July 5, 2013.] http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/07/05/Unemployment-Unchanged-at-7-6.

2. McKay, Tom. 2013 Immigration Reform: Republicans And Democrats Both Want a Path to Citizenship. www.policymic.com. [Online] Policymic, February 2013. [Cited: July 5, 2013.] http://www.policymic.com/articles/24317/2013-immigration-reform-republicans-and-democrats-both-want-a-path-to-citizenship.

3. Barreto, Matt. What the GOP has to gain – and lose – among Latinos when it comes to immigration reform. www.latinldecisions.com. [Online] Decisions Latino Politics, march 21, 2013. [Cited: July 5, 2013.] http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2013/03/21/what-the-gop-has-to-gain-and-lose-among-latinos-when-it-comes-to-immigration-reform/.

4. Trende, Sean. The Case of the Missing White Voters. www.realcleapolitics.com. [Online] Real Clear Politics, November 8, 2012. [Cited: July 5, 2013.] http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106-2.html.

5. U.S. Election Atlas. 2012 Presidential General Election Results. uselectionatlas.org. [Online] [Cited: July 5, 2013.] http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php.

6. Hobin, Patrick. Palin Hints at Formation of Third Party. www.newsmax.com. [Online] Newsmax, August 26, 2012. [Cited: July 2013, 2013.] http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Sarah-Palin-third-party/2012/08/26/id/449786?s=al&promo_code=FDB7-1.

7. Breitbart News. Palin floats idea of leaving Republican Party. m.teaparty.org. [Online] Teaparty.org, June 29, 2013. [Cited: July 5, 2013.] http://m.teaparty.org/palin-floats-idea-of-leaving-republican-party-25968/.