Heroes, Hurricanes, and Nobody Left Behind.

It is less than one week before the election and this week has been a very active news week.  Most important is that we continue to pray and do whatever we can to help those affected by Hurricane Sandy.  What brought the immensity of this storm home to me was a picture I saw on the Drudge Report Tuesday morning showing a totally dark skyline of New York City.  Hurricane Sandy left New York, a city that never sleeps, asleep and in the dark.  I am confident that the people of New York, the people who survived 9/11, will come through this challenge as well. 

We have also been shocked this week as we discover more about the attack on our embassy in Benghazi.  After the Obama Administration told us that the attack was the result of an offensive video, we have come to know that terrorists with links to Al Qaida coordinated the attack.  There is great speculation as to why the administration would cover up the truth in this matter and I for one want to discover the truth regardless of who wins the election on November 6. 

As we have uncovered the truth of what occurred on 9/11 in Benghazi, we discovered the heroism of Tyrone Woods.  At first, the Administration told us that Mr. Woods, a retired Navy Seal, was working security at the embassy.  However, we now know that he was actually working for the CIA at a facility about a mile away from the embassy.  After hearing gunfire from the embassy, Mr. Woods requested back up so he could go in and rescue those in the embassy.  However, when he requested back up, Mr. Woods received an order to stand down. 

Ty Woods, believed that the U.S. does not leave anyone behind when we are attacked and was not about to sit there while Americans were murdered at our embassy so he disobeyed his stand down order and proceeded to rescue people in the embassy.  Unfortunately, he was unable to rescue the ambassador and two others at the embassy but he was able to rescue 30 people before sacrificing his own life.  Tyrone Woods is a true American hero in my opinion and I am sure the 30 people he rescued along with their families would agree with me. 

In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, President Obama promised the people in the northeast that they would not be left behind.  Mr. President, why did you not promise the same level of help for Americans serving our country on foreign soil that were under attack? 

Americans deserve leadership that is interested in protecting all citizens, those living in our country, those serving our country on foreign soil, and those serving our country in the military.  The Benghazi attack has demonstrated President Obama’s inability, or unwillingness to provide security for Americans under attack on foreign soil.  I believe President Romney will make security for all Americans no matter where they are at a priority.  So, if you have not made up your mind yet on who to vote for in this election, I urge you to vote for Mitt Romney, a man who will not hesitate to send assistance to any American under attack whether in this country or on foreign soil.  

America Needs the Right Transformational Leader

America is going in the wrong direction and needs a transformational leader.  We need a leader who is aware of the current condition of the country and is willing to make the tough decisions needed to turn the country around.  The decision we must make on November 6 is whether we want four more years of the transformational leadership of Obama or the transformational leadership of Mitt Romney. 

In 2008, the country was seeking transformational leadership as well.  Much of the reason John McCain lost was that he was viewed by many as non –transformational or more of the same.  However, the American people made a fatal mistake by selecting a transformational leader without checking to see what kind of change he wanted to make.  This election Obama can no longer simply promise change for now we have four years of his policies to look at. 

When Obama was elected in November 2008, the unemployment rate was 6.8% and as of September 2012, it was 7.8%.  (1)  The rate when Obama took office was also 7.8% so the rate did not go up but it also did not go down.  Obama claims to have inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression and looking at the unemployment numbers, we can say that it has not improved under his watch. 

Under Obama’s watch, we have also seen a dramatic increase in people on food stamps.  As of July 2012 there were 46.7 million people on food stamps (2) (3)  up from 32 million in January 2009 when Obama took office.  (3)  We have also seen an increase in the number of people on Social Security Disability from 7,469,240 workers in February 2009 to 8,808,335 in October 2012.  (4) 

I understand that this is a lot of numbers but the numbers tell us a story.  If we are to believe Obama’s strategy to bring change in 2008 has been successful, we must conclude that the goal of the strategy was not to put people back to work but to have more people dependent on the government to take care of them.  Obama did tell Joe the Plumber that he favored the redistribution of wealth and based on these numbers it appears he has been successful.  However, I do not believe Americans were seeking this type of transformation when they elected Obama. 

Romney is also a transformational leader but unlike Obama in 2008, he does have a history as a transformational leader.  He ran Bain capital a company that took struggling companies and turned them around.  During his tenure at Bain, they were able to turn around many companies that are prominent today such as Staple and Best Buy.  Mitt Romney’s transformational leadership style was also able to rescue the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City from bankruptcy. 

As a transformational leader, Mitt Romney has a history of success.  Of course there are also failures but any effort to turn an ailing organization around runs the risk of failure.  That is the risk of being a transformational leader. 

So, this election, just like the election in 2008, the country is in need of a transformational leader.  We have the choice of Obama who now has a record that reveals the type of change he is seeking for our country; change into a European Socialist State.  Or, we can choose Mitt Romney, a successful executive with a proven track record of success turning around ailing organizations.  Mitt Romney is a transformational leader who wants to transform the United States back to the free market principles that made it great. 

I believe the choice is clear.  Do we want to continue sliding into a European Socialist State that is destined to fail like Greece or Spain, or do we want to return to what made our nation great.  Join me in returning to American greatness by voting for Romney.

1. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject. data.bls.gov. [Online] United States Department of Labor Statistics. [Cited: October 27, 2012.] http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet.

2. United States Department of Agriculture. Data & Statistics. www.fns.usda.gov. [Online] USDA. [Cited: October 27, 2012.] http://www.fns.usda.gov/fns/data.htm.

3. Agriculture, United States Department of. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. fhs.usda.gov. [Online] United States Department of Agriculture, September 28, 2012. [Cited: October 27, 2012.] http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/34snapmonthly.htm.

4. Jeffrey, Terence P. 8,803,335: Another New Record for Disability—Up 975 Per Day Under Obama. cnsnews.com. [Online] CNS News, October 25, 2012. [Cited: October 27, 2012.] http://cnsnews.com/news/article/8803335-another-new-record-disability-975-day-under-obama.

Do We Want Keep Giving People a Fish or Start Teaching People to Fish

There is an old saying “Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day, teach a man to fish and he will eat for a lifetime.”  In almost every political campaign, we have one candidate who promises to give people everything they need want and another candidate who promises to get government out of the way so people can earn what they want through their hard labor.  This presidential campaign is no different. 

On the left side we have President Obama.  Even though President Obama has not provided many details of his agenda for the next four years, we can predict that agenda by looking at what he has done during his first term.  During the last four years Obama has passed Obamacare providing supposedly free healthcare for everyone, I say supposedly because nothing is free.  He promises free contraceptives for women, even women working for faith-based organizations who are against contraceptives.  He has promised affordable housing.  He has given billions to failed green energy companies who have failed.  He bailed out the United Auto Workers Union (UAW) by bailing out GM and Chrysler so they would not have to go through traditional bankruptcy and renegotiate labor contracts with the UAW.

As a candidate, Obama is a fish peddler, promising people a fish.  The only problem is that just like the old saying, once people eat the fish, in other words when the money runs out, they have to come back to the government for more.  Candidates like this have contributed to our $16 trillion in debt. 

Romney, on the other hand, is a successful executive who understands how business works and wants to provide a business environment where people have an opportunity to succeed in their jobs, careers, and business.  Instead of promising giveaways, he has a plan for lower taxes, fewer regulations, and smaller government.  Lower taxes will give people more money to spend and businesses more money to invest.  Both of these activities will contribute to economic growth because someone has to make the additional products consumers will buy and business people will not just sit on their additional capital but will invest it in business expansion resulting in more jobs that will put people back to work. 

With fewer regulations holding them back, businesses will be free to expand.  This is especially true for carbon based energy companies.  With many of the regulations removed, we will be able to begin drilling for our own oil and natural gas and begin mining our coal.  This too will put people back to work. 

Reducing the size of government will mean government will be able to balance the budget and stop increasing the size of the massive deficit we currently have.  Reducing the government debt will release money that can be loaned to business.  Businesses will use this money to create even more business expansion and jobs. 

As a successful business executive, Romney, like the fisherman in the saying, wants to teach and give others the opportunity to fish.  Romney understands that these people will be able to become self-sufficient and will not need to keep coming back to the government for additional money. 

The election is less than two weeks away.  The only sustainable path for our country is to quit handing fish out to people and begin teaching them how to fish.  This is why we must change course and elect Romney as our next president, win a Republican majority in the Senate, and increase the Republican majority in the House.  

During the remaining days before the election, we must work to support Romney and republican candidates for the Senate and House.  If you can, give to the candidates.  If you cannot give, volunteer for the campaign by knocking on doors or making calls.  You can also make sure everyone that wants a change in direction in our country gets to the polling place to vote or get them an absentee ballot. 

It is time for more fishermen in this country and fewer people with their hands out for a fish.  

The Trends are Encouraging but We Must Keep the Pressure On.

A scanning of this morning’s headlines shows some very encouraging trends.  Gallop shows Romney at 50% or above for the fifth day in a row in their poll of likely voters (1) (2).  The Real Clear Politics Electoral College Poll, which uses an average of various polls, also shows Romney has taken the important Electoral College lead (3).  In addition, polling in the important battle ground state of Ohio shows Romney only trailing by 1 point in polling that samples 8% more democrats than Republicans (4).  There are even signs the media is losing confidence in an Obama victory (5).  The Obama campaign has also had to borrow $15 million from the Bank of America, a sign the campaign’s fund raising is falling behind (6). 

I am sure these trends have many in the Obama Campaign going into panic mode with a little over two weeks left until the election.  However, Romney supporters must not become complacent for much can happen in two weeks.  Therefore, we must keep the pressure on and work hard to turn out the vote in support for Romney because are also voting for more than just our next President this election cycle. 

One of the main issues energizing the Romney base this election is the repeal of Obamacare.  We also must stop Taxmageddon, which is set up to occur on January 1, 2013 unless Congress intervenes before then.  Both of these require not only taking control of the White House, but also maintaining a Republican majority in the House of Representatives and gaining Republican control of the Senate.  Moreover, we need a strong turnout to insure Republicans gain victory in state and local governments.  Many states also have ballot propositions that will have either a positive or a negative impact on local communities.  Therefore, in order to insure sweeping reform at all levels of government, we must have a massive turnout of freedom loving, concerned citizens all across the country. 

In the 2010 mid-terms we did exactly that.  The massive turnout, spurred on by the tea party movement, not only restored Republican control of the House of Representatives but also caused many state legislatures and governorships to turn Republican.  In addition, even though the effort did make gains in the Senate it failed to take control of the Senate away from the Democrats. 

In this election, we have an opportunity to take back the White House and make additional gains in the Senate so we can achieve a Republican majority.  This will mean that President Romney can make look forward to receiving legislation to repeal Obamacare as well as legislation stopping Taxmageddon.  President Romney can then work with the Senate and House to begin balancing the budget and reducing our crippling national debt. 

The bottom line is that we can and need to insure a record turnout of conservative voters to save our country.  Many have died throughout our history to insure our freedoms and liberties.  Now it is our turn to preserve our freedoms and liberties by voting for Romney and Republicans for the House and Senate.  We also need to vote for Republicans in our state and local elections in order to maintain our freedoms and liberties there as well. 

We meet at dawn on November 6 to begin the process of changing our country.  Let’s show up in big numbers and insure a big victory. 

1. Nolte, John. **GALLUP SHOCK** ROMNEY MAINTAINS SIX POINT LEAD. breitbart.com. [Online] Breitbart, October 20, 2012. [Cited: October 20, 2012.] http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/20/Gallup-Shock-Romney-Holds-Six-point-Lead.

2. Gallup . Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney. gallup.com. [Online] Gallup Politics. [Cited: October 20, 2012.] http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx.

3. Real Clear Politics. BATTLE FOR WHITE HOUSE. realclearpolitics.com. [Online] Real Clear Politics, October 20, 2012. [Cited: October 20, 2012.] http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html.

4. Dulis, Ezra. PPP: WITH D+8 SAMPLE, ROMNEY DOWN ONE IN OHIO; LEADS OBAMA ON LIBYA TRUST. breitbart.com. [Online] Breitbart, October 20, 2012. [Cited: October 20, 2012.] http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/20/PPP-Keeps-Obamas-Ohio-Lead-with-D-8-Sample.

5. Nolte, John. MEDIA ELITE KNOCK OBAMA FOR 'SNARKY, BELITTLING' CAMPAIGN. breitbart.com. [Online] Breitbart, October 20, 2012. [Cited: Octobers 20, 2012.] http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/20/Media-Elite-Fret-Over-Obamas-Small-Campaign.

6. Washington Free Beacon Staff. Obama Campaign Borrows $15M from Bank of America. freebeacon.com. [Online] The Washington Free Beacon, October 19, 2012. [Cited: October 20, 2012.] http://freebeacon.com/obama-campaign-borrows-15m-from-bank-of-america/.

Learning Lessons From History

Third party candidates have been part of our electoral process for many elections.  However, they usually do not win but in a close election, they can have an influence.  Usually that influence is not what the supporters of the third party expected. 

When attending school, I have to admit to not understanding the need to study history.  I got good grades in history but since I did not see history’s importance, I did not take much time to think about what I learned or remember it.  However, as I got older I learned the importance of history for history is where we learn lessons that help us not to make the same mistakes others have made. 

100 years ago in 1912 our country had a hotly contested Presidential election.  The winner of that election was Woodrow Wilson.  President Wilson was an enthusiastic advocate of progressivism.  Central to progressive thought is,

The notion that society needs an intellectual elite, endowed with superior wisdom and judgment, to refashion and transform it by methodically implementing as many progressive policies as possible. The best way to facilitate such an arrangement, progressives believe, is to impose, on the society, leadership by a powerful, preferably charismatic, virtually deified strongman capable of implementing such policies quickly and without opposition. In short, progressives favor something resembling an imperial presidency.  (1)

Wilson viewed the system of checks and balances built into the Constitution as “artificial” and “antiquated.”  President Wilson was an advocate of what we call today the “Living Constitution” (1) and was quoted as saying

Justly revered as our great Constitution is, it could be stripped off and thrown aside like a garment, and the nation would still stand forth in the living vestment of flesh and sinew, warm with the heart-blood of one people, ready to recreate constitutions and laws. ... Woodrow Wilson  (2)

Wilson a former president of Princeton had transformed the University using the model of the German university.  He was a champion of Hegelianism, a thought opposed to the natural rights philosophy of the Founders of our country.  (2)  He believed the progressive philosophy that rights came from an all-powerful elite ruling class of intellectuals who understood best what people in society needed. 

During the Wilson Administration, the 16^th and 17^th amendments to the constitution were written as well as the passage of legislation creating the Federal Reserve.  These three things laid the foundation for the modern day progressive movement.  This progressive movement has brought us to the point we currently find ourselves in as a nation. 

The 16^th amendment authorized congress to create an income tax.  (3)  Since then, the income tax has become a tool progressives use to transfer wealth from the wealthy to the poor. 

The 17^th amendment took the election of U.S. Senators away from State Legislatures and gave it to the voters of each state.  (4) State Legislatures would elect Senators who would have the best interest of the preservation of states rights especially the rights of the state they were elected from.  By placing the election of Senators in the hands of the voter, they gave voters the power to elect Senators who would work in their best interest instead of the interest of the State.  This in essence opened the door for the election of a Senate interested in a centralized government instead of the interests of their states. 

The creation of the Federal Reserve took control of National Monetary policy away from the elected branches of government and placed it in the control of a board appointed by officials who may not have the best interests of the American People in mind.  According to Dr. Ken Matto, former Congressional Candidate, 6th District N.J.

The Federal Reserve was incorporated in 1914 and has been creating a completely unnecessary national debt ever since. In simple terms, the Fed creates money as debt. They create money out of thin air by nothing more than a book entry. Whenever the members of the Fed make any loans, that debt money is our money supply.  (5)

This leads us to ask an important question, how a majority of the American electorate could vote for someone so against the Constitution and the unalienable rights of U.S. Citizens.  The answer to that question is they did not.  Woodrow Wilson only carried 41.84% of the popular vote.  The remaining 58.16% of the vote was split among the Republican candidate William Taft who carried 23.17% of the vote and various other candidates representing third parties.  (6)

It is likely that a majority of the electorate in 1912 was not interested in fundamentally transforming our government from a constitutional republic into a government that supported a living constitution that could be changed at the will of whoever was in power at the time.  Most likely, the voters voting third party were unhappy with both the Democrat and Republican Party and voted for someone else.  Unfortunately, they did not get what they desired and instead gave radical progressivism a foothold in our country. 

Going forward 100 years to 2012, we once again have voters that are unhappy with Democrats and Republicans and are considering voting third party.  Granted not nearly in the numbers we observed in 1912 but in a close election they could cause key swing states to go to the Democrat or Republican without either of them carrying a majority of the popular vote. 

I urge anyone considering voting third party in this close election to look at what happened in 1912 and reconsider.  Neither Obama nor Romney is perfect but one of them will be our next president.  Unfortunately, this means we will get someone we will not agree with 100%.  The last 4 years President Obama has shown a total disregard for constitutional government.  He promised change in 2008 and has shown us that his idea of change is to fundamentally change the structure of government in this country from a country ruled by the rule of law to a country ruled by a strong centralized government. 

Romney on the other hand is interested in changing this country back to what made it great.  He sees the effects of progressivism and how it has caused or nation to accrue $16 trillion in debt.  He sees the effect of high taxation on private business and wants to reduce those taxes so businesses can expand and hire more people.  Romney also understands that our country has enemies and needs a strong national security to protect us from them. 

We will have differences with either man over the next four years but Obama has shown us that he has a total disregard for anyone who disagrees with him.  With Obama, it is his way or the highway as evidenced by his numerous executive orders.  With Romney, we have someone who is used to negotiating with the boards and stockholders of the companies he helped turn around.  I believe he will be open to listen to the voters who put him in office as well as those who voted against him. 

If you are still considering voting third party in this election, I urge you to study history, especially the history of the 1912 election and reconsider. 

1. Discoverthenetworks.org. Policies of President Woodrow Wilson. www.discoverthenetworks.org. [Online] [Cited: October 18, 2012.] http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/viewSubCategory.asp?id=1224.

2. Curry, Robert. Woodrow Wilson's Constitution. www.freerepublic.com. [Online] Free Republic, July 25, 2008. [Cited: October 18, 2012.] 2012. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2051567/posts.

3. Cornell University Law School. 16th Amendment. www.law.cornell.edu. [Online] [Cited: October 18, 2012.] http://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxvi.

4. —. 17th Amendment. www.law.cornell.edu. [Online] [Cited: October 18, 2012.] http://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxvii.

5. Matto, R. Ken. The Federal Reserve: History of Lies, Thievery, and Deceit. www.scionofzion.com. [Online] [Cited: October 18, 2012.] http://www.scionofzion.com/federalreserve.htm.

6. uselectionatlas.org. 1912 Presidential General Election Results. 222.uselectionatlas.org. [Online] [Cited: October 18, 2012.] http://www.uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?f=0&year=1912.

Be a Responsible Voter

Election Day is fast approaching.  I can hardly wait for the opportunity to cast my vote and end the national nightmare we are currently experiencing.  However, in this election I believe that I have to do more than just cast my vote, I have to do whatever I can to insure many others get to the polls and cast their vote to elect Mitt Romney as our next president and to give him a House and Senate he can work with. 

Now I must be honest and confess that Mitt Romney was not my choice in the Primary Election.  The reason is that Romney was not conservative enough for me.  That is why I cast my vote for Rick Santorum in the Arizona Primary.  However, I live in the real world and understand that the next President of the United States will be either President Obama or Mitt Romney.  I refuse to waste my vote on a third party candidate because my third party vote for a conservative candidate will insure the ultra-liberal Obama gains another four years.  If you are considering casting a vote in this election for a third party candidate you believe is more conservative than Mitt Romney, I want you to consider what four more years of Obama would do to our country. 

I recently concluded an eight week series on “Becoming an Informed Voter” where I discussed seven things we can expect in an Obama second term.  I concluded in that series that another four years of an Obama Administration would seriously change the entire structure of our country.  We will go from a country that honors individual freedom to a country with a huge centralized government controlling virtually every aspect of our lives. 

In many ways this has already occurred because the government now controls your light bulbs, how much water you can use per flush in your toilet, the gas mileage of our  cars, and through our progressive income tax system, how much of our hard earned money we you can keep.  Another four years of Obama will institutionalize these things making it virtually impossible for any future President to reverse them. 

We have also seen the emergence of a dependent class that is very close to having a majority in this country.  Recently the media maligned Mitt Romney for a comment he made regarding the 47% who receive payments from the Government.  I understand that many of those 47% are Social Security recipients and retired military who worked hard their entire lives contributing to the system.  The government promised these individuals their benefits when they retired and they are legitimately entitled to receive their benefits.  However, the Social Security system is destined to go broke if the government does nothing to fix it. 

Obama is interested in maintaining the status quo when it comes to Social Security, which will eventually lead to its going bankrupt.  Of course that will not occur on Obama’s watch so he could care less.  Paul Ryan has a plan to insure the solvency of the fund without jeopardizing the benefits of current, and those 55 or older.  Therefore, I do not believe Mitt Romney was referring to Social Security recipients or retired military when he talked about the 47%.

There are also many who recently became part of the 47% because of the current economic downturn.  Most of these individuals want to work and go off government subsistence but the longer they continue to be dependent on government subsistence, the more difficult it will be for them to go off it.  The solution for these people is not to extend their benefits but to create a thriving private sector that creates jobs.  We have seen four years of Obama’s economic policies that have caused nearly 23 million people to drop out of the workforce.  Romney’s economic plan will grow the private sector and create jobs for these 23 million people. 

The 47% Romney was talking about were a growing number of people in our society, content with receiving government benefits.  He was referring to the fact that these individuals will vote for candidates who promise to keep the checks coming.  Mitt Romney’s 47% comment was a warning that if we allow the job killing policies of the current administration to continue another four years, we will see that dependent class grow to over 50%.  At that point, these individuals either will gladly or reluctantly vote for candidates who will keep the benefits coming Insuring big government entitlements will continue to grow.  If we allow this to occur, our nation will become like Greece or Spain. 

I understand that the President cannot constitutionally just implement laws so if we have a Republican Senate and House, constitutionally it will not happen.  However, this President has issued over 900 executive orders that bypass Congress and the courts.  Many of these executive orders involve EPA regulations, which will cause energy prices to soar.  The only way to end these regulations is to elect a President that will reverse them.  In addition, many of Obama’s ultra-liberal policies are already in place through legislation (i.e. Obamacare) and require repeal of the legislation.  A republican controlled House and Senate can vote for repeal but we know President Obama will never sign repeal legislation into law.  Therefore, we must elect conservatives to the House and Senate and a President that will reverse Obama’s executive orders and sign legislation repealing ultra-liberal legislation. 

As November 6 approaches, I urge everyone to be responsible with his or her vote.  We may not have a perfect candidate to choose from that can win.  In fact, unless you are running for office, you probably do not have a candidate to choose from that you totally agree with.  Therefore, I urge everyone to make the responsible choice by voting for candidates that will begin reversing the ultra-liberal trend our country is currently in. 

I have confidence that my fellow political avengers will do the right thing in November and insure Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress.  Then we can hold them accountable and begin reversing the leviathan of socialism liberals have thrown at us.  

Reviewing the September 2012 job numbers (Part 2): How the Unemployed are Counted

According to Last Friday’s jobs report, a massive amount of hiring occurred during September but as we discovered on my last posting, the numbers do not fit with the tepid economic growth we are experiencing.  We also observed that there still appear to be a large number of people dependent on food stamps and other government programs to survive.  We also observed that many who have experienced lengthy unemployment are going on Social Security Disability.  In this posting, we will look at how the government determines the unemployment rate. 

                                             

First, there are several different unemployment numbers but only one is considered official, the U3 number.  However, I believe that number does not provide an accurate picture of the true unemployment number.  I also believe that the other unemployment numbers, especially the U6 number provide an unemployment number that is more in line with the economic growth we are experiencing. 

Here is a list of the different methods used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to determine who is unemployed. 

            U1 unemployment: Those who have been out of work for 15 weeks or more;

U2 unemployment: Those who have lost jobs or have only been able to find temporary positions;

U3 unemployment: Those without jobs that are available for work and actively seeking it.  This is the official definition of unemployment — the one we read in the headlines;

U4 unemployment: U3 + “discouraged workers,” or those who have looked for jobs but feel they cannot find employment because of economic conditions;

U5 unemployment: U4 + “marginally attached workers,” or those who would like to find jobs but have not looked recently;

U6 unemployment: U5 + part-time workers who cannot find full-time jobs for economic reasons. This is the widest definition of unemployment and gives the most accurate picture of the total number of under-employed people.  (1)

As we can see from these methods, the only number that counts everyone either unemployed or under-employed plus those who have totally dropped out of the workforce is the U6 number.  That is why I believe this number provides the truest picture of the unemployed in our economy but before we use this number, we must test it to see if it falls in line with other economic indicators.  First, however, we must explain the labor Participation Rate (LRP).

The LRP is defined as “The percentage of working-age persons in an economy who: are employed or are unemployed but looking for a job.” (2)  A decrease in the LRP means able-bodied people are dropping out of the labor force.  These people are not counted in the U3 number so this decreases the number of unemployed counted by the U3 number.  Since we are suspicious of the dropping U3 number we must now test the U6 number to see if it shows a similar drop or, as we might suspect, does it show us that unemployment is not going down. 

There are two ways of testing the numbers.  First, we can adjust the unemployment numbers by factoring in the decrease in the LRP.  When we adjust the unemployment numbers by using the LRP when President Obama took office we see that the U3 number is actually 9.8% up from 8.6% when Obama took office.  In other words, the unemployment rate has increased, not decreased during the Obama Administration.  This graphic illustrates the numbers when adjusted by the LRP.

 (3)

The U6 number remained unchanged in September at 14.7%.  (4)  If we had experienced the massive Job growth the administration wants us to believe occurred in September, we should have seen both of these numbers decrease.  The only mathematical reason for a decrease in the U3 without a subsequent decrease in the U6 is that more people moved from the U3 to U4 or U5 and would be included in the U6 number.  This would result in a decrease in the U3 with no change in the U6 since these people were part of that number in August. 

People moving from U3 where they receive unemployment benefits into U6 where they do not receive these benefits would seek assistance through other programs such as food stamps or SSI Disability.  This would explain the drop in U3 unemployment with a high level of people remaining on food stamps and going on disability. 

My conclusion is that the Lower U3 unemployment in September does not mean the economy is improving.  When we look at how unemployment is counted, we discover that during a lengthy period of high unemployment many become discouraged and give up looking for work.  That is why during periods of lengthy unemployment, we should give greater attention to the U6 number.  Therefore, after the release of the monthly unemployment numbers that come out the first Friday of the following month, I will be giving the U6 number instead of the U3 number given by the rest of the media. 

1. Filip, Jake. Your Ultimate Cheat Sheet To Unemployment Numbers. wallstcheatsheet.com. [Online] Wall St. Cheat Sheet, September 3, 2010. [Cited: October 9, 2012.] http://wallstcheatsheet.com/economy/your-ultimate-guide-to-unemployment-numbers.html/.

2. Moffatt, Mike. What is the Labor Participation Rate? economics,about.com. [Online] About.com. [Cited: October 9, 2012.] http://economics.about.com/od/unemploymentrate/f/labor_force.htm.

3. The Heathen Republican. 7.8% Election Unemployment Rate: Q3 2012 Analysis. heathenrepublican.blogspot.com. [Online] The Heathen Republican, October 6, 2012. [Cited: October 9, 2012.] http://heathenrepublican.blogspot.com/2012/10/78-election-unemployment-rate-q3-2012.html.

4. Luciano, Michael. Real Unemployment Rate: U6 Rate Stays at 14.7 Percent, as U3 Falls to 7.8 Percent. www.policymic.com. [Online] Policymic, October 6, 2012. [Cited: October 9, 2012.] http://www.policymic.com/articles/15908/real-unemployment-rate-u6-rate-stays-at-14-7-percent-as-u3-falls-to-7-8-percent.

Reviewing the September 2012 job numbers (Part 1): How Reliable Are the Numbers?

The first debate was an overwhelming victory for Mitt Romney but this is not the time for Romney supporters to begin celebrating victory.  President Obama is still President and as President, he has access to many resources that could influence votes in this election.  The recent employment numbers are a prime example.

The day after the debate, the government released the September jobs numbers.  On the surface, they show phenomenal job growth.  The unemployment rate dropped below 8 percent, which is the magic number pundits have used in order for unemployment not to be a hindrance to the reelection chances of President Obama.  The report also shows that the number of unemployed people dropped by 456,000 and that 873,000 people found jobs in September.  (1)

As an accountant, I practice professional skepticism when looking at a set of numbers.  This does not mean that I am accusing someone of fraud when auditing something, only that I understand the numbers contain estimates that may, or may not be based on sound models.  I also understand that people compile numbers and people can commit errors.  Of course, there is also the possibility of fraud. 

The first phase of any audit is to perform a review of the numbers to determine if anything looks unreasonable.  This step shows the auditor what areas may need further review.  So, let us take a few minutes to perform a review of these job numbers to determine if they appear reasonable.

The last time the economy added 873,000 jobs in one month was in June of 1983.  During the second quarter of 1983, the economy grew at a rate of 9.3 percent s and added 900,000 jobs.  (2)  It would be reasonable to believe that the economy would add 900,000 jobs with that level of growth so I would expect to see a high level of growth for September 2012.    

However, the economic growth for the third quarter of 2012 is expected to be only 1.5 percent.  This raises a red flag for a professional skeptic like me so I believe we need to investigate how the September jobs numbers were compiled. 

However, we do not want to launch an investigation based on just one factor so we need to look at other factors to determine the reliability of the numbers.  If there were this high of a level of economic growth, we would see impacts in the economy as a whole.  We should be seeing people going off unemployment, food stamps, and beginning to spend causing retail sales to skyrocket. 

Unemployment has dropped to 7.8 percent, which would fall in line with the creation of 873,000 jobs, but food stamp use continues to skyrocket.  In 2008 there were 1.9 million households on food stamps and the number grew to 3.9 million in 2010.  (3)  This fact does not appear to fall in line with a massively growing economy and is unreasonable.  Numbers that are more recent show that there are over 45 million households dependent on food stamps or around 15 percent of the population.  (4)

We also are seeing growth in the number of people going on Social Security Disability.  According to the July 16, 2012 press release issued by the U.S. Senate Budget Committee Republicans Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL) stated.

U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), Ranking Member of the Senate Budget Committee, issued the following statement today upon receipt of a report from the Congressional Budget Office about the immense growth in the Social Security Disability Insurance program. Over the last three months, more Americans have begun receiving SSDI benefits than have found jobs:

“Today’s report from the Congressional Budget Office reveals a dramatic increase in applications and awards for Social Security disability, placing the disability trust fund on a fast-track to insolvency in just four years. Amazingly, while fewer Americans are working than at the end of 2008, 3.6 million Americans have been awarded SSDI benefits over the same period. The growing number of people on disability and other federal benefits, combined with weak economic growth, raises serious concerns about the sustainability of the American economy.

“It is clear there is a great need to distinguish between proper and improper disability claims, and to better incentivize and find acceptable work for those who are able. Today only 1 percent of Social Security disability recipients ever return to work. The administration of this program must be improved to avoid sinking our country deeper into debt, to ensure the program remains viable for those with disabilities, and to protect Social Security itself. (4)

Mort Zuckerman summarized it well when he stated

“We are experiencing, in effect, a modern-day depression. Consider two indicators: First, food stamps: More than 45 million Americans are in the program! An almost incredible record. It’s 15% of the population compared with the 7.9% participation from 1970-2000. Food-stamp enrollment has been rising at a rate of 400,000 per month over the past four years.

“Second, Social Security disability—another record. More than 11 million Americans are collecting federal disability checks. [Many] of these beneficiaries have signed on since President Obama took office more than three years ago.

“These dependent millions are the invisible counterparts of the soup kitchens and bread lines of the 1930s, invisible because they get their checks in the mail. But it doesn’t take away from the fact that millions of people who had good private-sector jobs now have to rely on welfare for life support.”

“Not only does the surge in SSDI beneficiaries jeopardize that program, it also hammers Medicare. When a person has been disabled two years, they automatically receive Medicare benefits regardless of age. The CBO report states that in 2011, DI expenditures totaled $128 billion and Medicare costs for SSDI recipients were an additional $80 billion.” (4)

Consumer spending did climb in July 2012 but this was the first climb in three months. (4)  However, these figures are from July 2012 and were not published until August 30, 2012.  I would expect that when the September consumer spending numbers are released some time towards the end of October, we would see a massive increase in consumer spending to mirror the massive increase in jobs.  However, this would mean that the estimates of only 1.5 percent in economic growth are grossly underestimated.  We are also entering the Holiday season and would expect increases in consumer spending driven by spending for Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Hanukah so we need to seasonally adjust the numbers in order to compare them with previous quarters in the year. 

These numbers do not appear to be in line with the current slow growth economic climate.  We also are not seeing a decrease in people dependent on the safety net to survive so we must question whether people are finding employment that can support their economic needs.  We are seeing increases in consumer spending but do not have the numbers yet to reflect consumer spending for September 2012. 

Therefore, over the next couple of weeks, I will be digging deeper into these numbers in order to determine if there are errors in the methodology used in developing the numbers.  This is an election year and in order for voters to make the correct decisions on who will lead our country, they need to have reliable numbers.  The jobs number affects almost everyone in the nation so I believe the voters deserve a fair representation of the job situation in our economy. 

1. Newsbusters.org. Total Employment Rises 873,000 To Highest Level Since December 2008. newsbusters.org. [Online] Newsbusters.org, October 5, 2012. [Cited: October 6, 2012.] http://drudgegae.iavian.net/r?hop=http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/10/05/number-employed-people-rises-873000-september-highest-december-2008.

2. Pethokoukis, James. 873,000 jobs? Last time, the economy added that many, it was growing at a white-hot 9.3%. www.aei-ideas.org. [Online] AEIdeas, October 5, 2012. [Cited: October 6, 2012.] http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/10/873000-jobs-last-time-the-economy-added-that-many-it-was-growing-at-a-white-hot-9-3/.

3. Klein, Philip. CRS report: number of able-bodied adults on food stamps doubled after Obama suspended work requiremen. washingtonexaminer.com. [Online] The Washington Examiner, September 19, 2012. [Cited: October 6, 2012.] http://m.washingtonexaminer.com/report-able-bodied-adults-on-food-stamps-doubled-after-work-requirement-suspended/article/2508430.

4. Weller, Mark R. ‘Dramatic Surge In Americans Receiving Disability Insurance’. homelessphilosopher.wordpress.com. [Online] September ` 9, 2012`. [Cited: October 2012, 2012.] http://homelessphilosopher.wordpress.com/2012/09/09/dramatic-surge-in-americans-receiving-disability-insurance/.

5. Kowalski, Alex. Consumer Spending in U.S. Climbs for First Time in Three Months. businessweek.com. [Online] Bloomberg businessweek, August 30, 2012. [Cited: October 6, 2012.] http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-08-30/consumer-spending-in-u-dot-s-dot-climbs-for-first-time-in-three-months.

Becoming an Informed Voter Part 8: Expect Stricter Gun Controls

The second amendment of the U.S. Constitution states, “A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”  The signers of the Constitution had just fought a bloody war to gain their freedom from an oppressive totalitarian government and believed that an armed citizenry was the best insurance against that occurring in the new country.  Unfortunately, not all of our politicians today agree with the thinking of our founding fathers and use every opportunity to point to the need for making it difficult, if not impossible, for citizens to arm themselves. 

The shooting at the theater in Colorado was horrific and after the shooting, as expected, we heard leaders calling for a ban on certain weapons.  Among them was Rep. Ed Perlmutter, a Democrat from Aurora Colorado where the shooting occurred.  (1)  However, others argued that had there been an armed citizenry at the theater, they would have stopped the shooter.  This leads us to ask the question, does an armed citizenry increase or decrease gun crime. 

Economist John Lott, author of the book “More Guns, Less Crime.” conducted a statistical analysis comparing counties with strict gun control laws with counties allowing citizens to carry weapons.  Mr. Lott’s findings revealed that the counties allowing citizens to carry saw a decrease in crimes such as murder, assault, robbery, and rape.  Many took objection to Mr. Lott’s findings but according to John Allen Paulos of ABC News, “Lott's formal calculations are not wrong in any blatant way.” (2) 

Lott’s thesis is also proven outside our country.  Murder rates in Mexico and South Africa where there is strict gun control are twice as high as those in the United States.  In New Zealand, Israel, and Switzerland who have gun ownership rates comparable to ours, rates of violent crime are lower than those in the United States.  Specifically, in Switzerland where there are an estimated 6 million Swiss owning 2 million guns, including 600,000 fully automatic assault rifles, the murder rate is 15 percent of that in the United States.  (3) 

The statistics seem to tell us that an armed citizenry does indeed reduce crime.  Unfortunately, four more years of an Obama Administration could result in stricter gun control and not less. 

The DNC platform adopted at the 2012 Convention says the following about gun control

We recognize that the individual right to bear arms is an important part of the American tradition, and we will preserve Americans' Second Amendment right to own and use firearms.  We believe that the right to own firearms is subject to reasonable regulation.  We understand the terrible consequences of gun violence; it serves as a reminder that life is fragile, and our time here is limited and precious.  We believe in an honest, open national conversation about firearms.  We can focus on effective enforcement of existing laws, especially strengthening our background check system, and we can work together to enact commonsense improvements--like reinstating the assault weapons ban and closing the gun show loophole--so that guns do not fall into the hands of those irresponsible, law-breaking few.  (4)

This sounds good because it does not forbid anyone from owning a gun and only calls for more background checks.  However, 90 percent of violent crimes are committed without a handgun and of those committed with a handgun, 93 percent of the guns used were obtained illegally and thus bypassed registration laws and waiting periods.  (3)

This is a list of positions Obama has taken on Gun Control.

Fast-and-Furious: no prosecutions for Mexican gun/drug snafu.  (Jun 2012) Midwestern "bitter clingers" frustrated over broken promises.  (Aug 2009) Opposed bill okaying illegal gun use in home invasions.  (Aug 2008) Ok for states & cities to determine local gun laws.  (Apr 2008) FactCheck: Yes, Obama endorsed Illinois handgun ban.  (Apr 2008) April 2008: "Bittergate" labeled Obama elitist.  (Apr 2008) Respect second Amendment, but local gun bans ok.  (Feb 2008) Provide some common-sense enforcement on gun licensing.  (Jan 2008) 2000: cosponsored bill to limit purchases to 1 gun per month.  (Oct 2007) Concealed carry OK for retired police officers.  (Aug 2007) Stop unscrupulous gun dealers dumping guns in cities.  (Jul 2007) Keep guns out of inner cities--but also problem of morality.  (Oct 2006) Bush erred in failing to renew assault weapons ban.  (Oct 2004) Ban semi-automatics, and more possession restrictions.  (Jul 1998) Voted NO on prohibiting lawsuits against gun manufacturers.  (Jul 2005) (5) In contrast, the RNC platform says the following regarding gun control. We uphold the right of individuals to keep and bear arms, a right which antedated the Constitution and was solemnly confirmed by the Second Amendment.  We acknowledge, support, and defend the law-abiding citizens God-given right of self-defense.  We call for the protection of such fundamental individual rights recognized in the Supreme Court's decisions in District of Columbia v. Heller and McDonald v. Chicago affirming that right, and we recognize the individual responsibility to safely use and store firearms.  This also includes the right to obtain and store ammunition without registration.  We support the fundamental right to self-defense wherever a law-abiding citizen has a legal right to be, and we support federal legislation that would expand the exercise of that right by allowing those with state-issued carry permits to carry firearms in any state that issues such permits to its own residents.

I see no mention of more gun control legislation in this statement but I do see strong language allowing the use or weapons as long as the individual uses them safely and in a responsible matter.  Newt Gingrich's gun, crime & drug issues compared to Mitt's.  (Feb 2012) 1994: backed 5-day waiting period on gun sales.  (Jan 2012) Find common ground with pro-gun & anti-gun groups.  (Jan 2012) 2002: I will not chip away at MA's tough gun laws.  (Nov 2011) 2008: "Lifelong" devotion to hunting meant "small varmints.”  (Jan 2010) 2002: My positions won't make me the hero of the NRA.  (Nov 2008) GovWatch: 1994: did not “line up with the NRA.”  (Feb 2008) Support the 2nd Amendment AND the assault weapon ban.  (Jan 2008) I support the work of the NRA, but disagree sometimes.  (Dec 2007) Ok to ban lethal weapons that threaten police.  (Dec 2007) Compromise MA gun bills were net gain for gun owner.  (Aug 2007) Supports Second Amendment rights but also assault weapon ban.  (May 2007) Will support assault weapons bill and Brady Bill.  (Aug 1994) Okay there is little difference between Obama and Romney on gun control but if elected President, Republicans will hold Romney to what the RNC platform says whereas voters will not have that option with Obama who more closely agrees with his party’s platform.  This concludes our comparison of the country under 4 years of Romney versus 4 more years of Obama.  Looking at the differing views on the issues, we see that those wanting the government to do more for them should vote for Obama who favors more and expanding government programs to provide more government services for citizens.  Those wanting more liberty and freedom with reduced government interference and taxes should vote for Romney. Now it is time for you the voter to decide.  1. Trindle, Jess Bravin and Jamila. Few politicians call for gun-control changes. online.wsj.com. [Online] The Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2012. [Cited: October 2, 2012.] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444025204577543033015396416.html?mod=e2tw. 2. Paulos, John Allen. Do Concealed Guns Reduce Crime? abcnews.go.com. [Online] ABC News, March 1, 2012. [Cited: October 2, 2012.] http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/WhosCounting/story?id=98678&page=1#.UGuYQU3hKvu. 3. Williams, Walter E. More guns reduces crime. econfaculty.gmu.edu. [Online] George Mason University, June 28, 1995. [Cited: October 2, 2012.] http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/wew/articles/95/more-guns-less-crime.htm. 4. Party, The Democratic. Democratic party on gun control. www.issues2000.org. [Online] OnTheIssues, September 4, 2012. [Cited: October 3, 2012.] http://www.issues2000.org/celeb/Democratic_Party_Gun_Control.htm. 5. OnTheIssues. 2012 Presidential candidates Barack Obama on the issues. www.ontheissues.org. [Online] OnTheIssues. [Cited: October 2, 2012.] http://www.ontheissues.org/barack_obama.htm#Gun_Control.