Rebuilding the Republican Party: SWAT Analysis

As we discussed last Wednesday, the Republican Party is in trouble and risks alienating its base.  The party that was able to win two landslide presidential elections in the 1980’s has only been able to win two of the last seven popular votes in presidential elections.  (1)  In the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections, Barack Obama was able to win election partly because of the inability of the Republican Party to select a nominee that excited the base.  In 2012, analysts estimate that approximately 6.6 million white voters stayed home.  (2)  Many of these voters were part of the Republican base that would have propelled Romney to victory had they shown up to vote. 

One tool used buy organizations that find themselves in trouble is something called a SWOT analysis.  SWOT stands for strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats and is an excellent way for an organization to focus in on the areas it is strong in and work on areas of weakness.  (3)   In this posting, I am going to conduct a SWOT analysis of the Republican Party in order to determine the party’s strengths and reveal weaknesses that the Party needs to work on.  We can then take this analysis and develop a plan for the Party that plays to the strengths of the party while addressing the Party’s weaknesses. 

Strengths:

The Republican Party is down but not out.  After the 2008 election, many thought that the Republican Party was finished for many years.  (4)  Then the issue of Obamacare came up.  The Republican base silent in 2008 awakened and formed the Tea Party movement.  (5)   The Tea Party is not a political party but was a movement that sprang up out of the base of the Republican Party.

This movement, angered at how Obamacare was being crammed down the throats of the citizens of the United States, was able to wrestle control of the House away from Democrats and end the super majority enjoyed by the Senate.  (6)  The Republican Party thought to be finished after the 2008 election had new life but the momentum from 2010 did not carry over to the 2012 presidential election revealing some inherent weaknesses in the Party. 

Weaknesses:

Unfortunately, the Republican establishment works by the 40-40-20 rule (7)  and believes its base is solid and not going anywhere.  Because of this belief, the party leadership has adopted a strategy of attempting to return to its winning ways by going after a majority of the 20 percent of independents and capturing more of the minority vote.  The 2012 presidential election results exposed the fallacy of this strategy because Mitt Romney took the independent vote and still lost the election.  (8)

The weakness in the Republican Party lies in the fact that the base is not solid.  The fact that over 6 million white voters stayed home in 2012 (2)  is proof of the deterioration of the party base.  The party must adopt a strategy that shores up the base. 

Opportunities:

According to a poll by Politico on 9/26/2011, 81 percent of those polled are unhappy with government.  (9)  In fact, Obama used this dissatisfaction to his advantage in 2008 running on a campaign promising hope and change.  However, Obama’s vision of change has not improved the popularity of government, as evidenced by the 2011 politico poll, but has actually made the situation worse.  What this means for the Republican Party is they have an opportunity to run on real change.  The Republican Party can run a campaign promising less government intrusion in people’s lives.  They can promise to reduce the size and scope of government so people have the freedom to pursue their own dreams and goals. 

Last week the movie Jobs, a biography of the life of Steve Jobs, came out.  Steve Jobs was a visionary entrepreneur who started with a dream of making computers easier for people to use.  He was able to make that dream a reality through hard work and persistence.  Most of us would like to become the next Steve Jobs and some of you reading this might possibly be the next great business entrepreneur but for that to occur, we need to make the government smaller and less intrusive in our lives.  The Republican Party has an opportunity to appeal to the entrepreneurial spirit by running on a platform promising smaller government.  The good news is that this entrepreneurial spirit exists in all races and genders of people in our country and even crosses party lines. 

Threats:

The biggest threat to the Republican Party is that the leadership continues believe the base is solid and focuses its attention on having a big tent welcoming in more minorities.  As they do this many from the base are leaving the tent.  Even John McCain admitted that the path to citizenship in the recently passed Senate immigration legislation would not result in more vote for Republicans.  (10)  In other words, immigrants may come into the Republican big tent but they are only visiting while the permanent residents of the tent are leaving.  The Republican big tent is getting pretty lonely. 

The Republican Party also needs to stop the open primary process.  The purpose of presidential primaries is for each party to nominate their candidate.  Open primaries make it possible for voters from the opposition party to vote for a candidate that their nominee can defeat in the general election.  In 2008, Rush Limbaugh launched “Operation Chaos” on his radio program and was able to extend the Democrat primary process.  (11)  Let’s let the base in the Republican Party pick the candidate they can get excited about, watch the absent voters from 2012 return, and bring a victory in 2016.

In next Wednesday’s, post I will begin presenting a plan for victory in 2014 and 2016 based on this analysis.  I encourage everyone to add a comment to this post with their ideas but most of all I encourage everyone to keep their head up and not lose hope.  We thought the Republican Party was dead in 2008 and yet in two short years we had a great victory in the mid-terms.  We lost momentum in 2012 but I believe we have an opportunity to regain that momentum in 2014 and carry it forward in to 2016. 

1. ProCon.org. Presidential Election History from 1789 to 2008. 2008election.procon.org. [Online] [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://2008election.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=001565.

2. Trende, Sean. The Case of the Missing White Voters. www.realcleapolitics.com. [Online] Real Clear Politics, November 8, 2012. [Cited: July 5, 2013.] http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106-2.html.

3. Management Study Guide. SWOT Analysis. www.managementstudyguide.com. [Online] Management Study Guide. [Cited: August 20, 2013.] http://www.managementstudyguide.com/swot-analysis.htm.

4. Carville, James. 40 More Years: How the Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation. www.alternet.org. [Online] Alternet, May 1, 2009. [Cited: August 20, 2013.] http://www.alternet.org/story/138321/40_more_years%3A_how_the_democrats_will_rule_the_next_generation.

5. Mellon, Donald. The Tea Party Movement. www.teaparty911.com. [Online] Tea Party 911, October 9, 2012. [Cited: August 20, 2013.] http://www.teaparty911.com/tea_party_movement.htm.

6. Jonsson, Patrik. How the tea party helped GOP find a path to Election Day successes. www.csmonitor.com. [Online] The Christian Science Monitor, November 2, 2010. [Cited: August 2013, 2013.] http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/Tea-Party-Tally/2010/1102/How-the-tea-party-helped-GOP-find-a-path-to-Election-Day-successes.

7. The Erstwhile Conservative. The 40-40-20 Rule. duanegraham.wordpress.com. [Online] The Erstwhile Conservative. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://duanegraham.wordpress.com/2010/11/06/the-40-40-20-rule/.

8. Logiurato, Brett. Why Winning The Independent Vote Can Actually Be A Bad Thing. www.businessinsider.com. [Online] Business Insider, November 12, 2012. [Cited: August 20, 2013.] http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-independent-vote-polls-moderates-election-2012-11.

9. Mak, Tim. Poll: 81% unhappy with government. www.politico.com. [Online] Politico, September 26, 2011. [Cited: August 20, 2013.] http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/64390.html.

10. Lee, Tony. MCCAIN CONCEDES IMMIGRATION REFORM BILL WON'T GAIN GOP 'A SINGLE HISPANIC VOTER'. www.breitbart.com. [Online] Breitbart News, July 31, 2013. [Cited: August 17, 2013.] http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/07/31/McCain-Concedes-Immigration-Reform-Bill-Won-t-Gain-GOP-a-Single-Hispanic-Voter.

11. The Huffington Post. Rush Limbaugh: 'Operation Chaos' A Success In Extending Nomination. www.huffingtonpost.com. [Online] The Huffington Post, July 29, 2008. [Cited: August 20, 2013.] http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/rush-limbaugh-operation-c_n_100485.html.