Time For Some Electoral Math:

After the devastation of Watergate, the Republican Party found itself in a crisis, which became evident with the loss of Gerald Ford in the 1976 election.  (1)  Under the Presidency of Jimmy Carter, the nation’s economy fell into a deep recession resulting in high interest rates, double-digit unemployment, and double-digit inflation.  (2)  The nation was also in a protracted hostage situation in Iran.  (3)  This resulted in the American people turning Carter out office and electing Ronald Reagan.  (4)

Reagan won election promising smaller government, lower taxes, and a strong national defense.  The nation weary from the Watergate Scandal, tired of the failed economic policies of the Carter Administration, and seeing the inability of our nation to respond to the taking of hostages in Iran, elected Regan to office in a landslide.  The nation hoped that his policies would turn the nation around and get the U.S. back to the position of greatness it once possessed.  (5)

Since the two landslide victories of Reagan, there have been seven presidential elections.  Of those seven elections, the Republicans have only managed to win 2 popular votes and 3 electoral victories.  (6)  What happened that caused the dominate Republican Party to be unable to win in presidential elections?

The answer lies in what consultants typically tell candidates running for office.  Most political consultants work by the 40-40-20 rule.  This rule states in every election there are 40 percent of the electorate that will vote Democrat and 40 percent of the electorate that will vote Republican no matter what.  (7)  The remaining 20 percent or swing voters are what the candidates spend most of their time and money trying to win over to their side.  In the 2012 election, Mitt Romney did an excellent job of winning over this 20 percent by winning a majority of the independent vote.  However, Mitt Romney lost both the popular and electoral votes.  Therefore, we must ask what went wrong. 

The answer lies in who stayed home in 2012.  According to the table below, all demographics had increases in 2012 except for white voters. 

 (8)

There is a fallacy in the 40-40-20 rule.  The fallacy lies in the assumption that 40 percent of the electorate will vote Republican no matter what.  The truth is that this assumption breaks down if many of the 40 percent stay home.  The electoral math reveals that the Republican Party needs to do a better job of shoring up and turning out its 40% in presidential elections. 

Unfortunately, the current debate over immigration reform reveals that the Republican Party leadership does not get it.  They support a path to citizenship for those here illegally believing they will be able to convince them to register and vote republican.  (9)  We have been down this road before and what happened was more Hispanic Democrat voters. 

Many believed that when Ronald Reagan signed the amnesty bill, Hispanics would vote Republican out of gratitude for the amnesty given to them by the legislation.  The table below however, tells a different story. 

--1980 Jimmy Carter, 56% Ronald Reagan, 35% +21
--1984 Walter Mondale, 61% Ronald Reagan, 37% +24
--1988 Michael Dukakis, 69% George H.W. Bush, 30% +39
--1992 Bill Clinton, 61% George H.W. Bush, 25% +36
--1996 Bill Clinton, 72% Bob Dole, 21% +51
--2000 Al Gore, 62% George W. Bush, 35% +27
--2004 John Kerry, 58% George W. Bush, 40% +18
--2008 Barack Obama, 67% John McCain, 31% +36
--2012 Barack Obama, 71% Mitt Romney, 27% +44  (10)

The highest percentage of the Hispanic vote any republican has been able to win since Regan signed the amnesty bill is 40 percent by President George W. Bush in 2004, which still represented an 18-percentage point loss to Democrat John Kerry.  These numbers tell an entirely different story then the one the Republican Leadership is trying to feed us. 

In order for Republicans to begin winning presidential elections, they need a different strategy that will get the 6.6 million white voters that stayed home in 2012 back out to the polls to vote for the Republican candidate.  In each Wednesdays post over the next several weeks I will be outlining what I believe the Republican Party needs to do to get back to its winning ways.  I encourage each of you to add your comments to the postings and share the link with your friends.  I am also going to email the party leader in my state and urge everyone to do the same in their own state.  I found my State party leadership by typing in the search term RNC Arizona to get the contact information for my local Republican leadership. 

I will also emailing the national leadership and urge everyone to do the same.  Use the following link to email the national RNC.  http://www.gop.com/contact-us/ . 

Let’s get in their face and remind them that their plans for rebuilding the Republican Party are suicide plans.  The party is losing because it is losing its base.  We have a plan that will energize the base and restore the party back to the glory days of the 1980’s.  If the current leadership fails to ignore the base, we need leadership that will listen.  Otherwise, the Republican Party is destined to go the way of the Wig Party. 

1. Authentic History. the 1976 Presidential Election. www.authentichistory.com. [Online] AHC. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://www.authentichistory.com/1974-1992/1-ford/4-1976election/.

2. On The Issues. Jimmy Carter on Budget & Economy. www.ontheissues.org. [Online] On The Issues. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://www.ontheissues.org/Celeb/Jimmy_Carter_Budget_&_Economy.htm.

3. Sick, Gary. The Carter Administration. iranprimer.usip.org. [Online] United States Institute of Peace. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/carter-administration-0.

4. home, BBC. 1980: Reagan Beats Carter in Landslide. news.bbc.co.uk. [Online] BBC, November 4, 1980. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/november/4/newsid_3192000/3192279.stm.

5. Republican Party. The Republican Party Platform of 1980. www.presidency.ucsb.edu. [Online] The American Presidency Project, July 15, 1980. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25844.

6. ProCon.org. Presidential Election History from 1789 to 2008. 2008election.procon.org. [Online] [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://2008election.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=001565.

7. The Erstwhile Conservative. The 40-40-20 Rule. duanegraham.wordpress.com. [Online] The Erstwhile Conservative. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://duanegraham.wordpress.com/2010/11/06/the-40-40-20-rule/.

8. Trende, Sean. The Case of the Missing White Voters. www.realcleapolitics.com. [Online] Real Clear Politics, November 8, 2012. [Cited: July 5, 2013.] http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106-2.html.

9. Lee, Tony. KARL ROVE, 100+ GOP DONORS SEND LETTER TO REPUBLICANS URGING IMMIGRATION REFORM. www.breitbart.com. [Online] Breitbart News, July 30, 2013. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/07/30/Karl-Rove-100-Donors-Send-Letter-to-GOP-Members-of-Congress-Urging-Immigration-Reform.

10. Free Republic. The Hispanic Vote in Presidential Elections, 1980-2012. www.freerepublic.com. [Online] Free Republic, November 7, 2012. [Cited: August 13, 2013.] http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2958571/posts.