The Coming Electoral Earthquake.

It is true that election results mean something but off year elections are always hard to gage.  This is because unlike Presidential elections where there is a massive advertising blitz and national attention, off year elections are typically local and have low turnouts.  This brings me to the elections in New Jersey and Virginia this week and what I believe they are telling us. 

In Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe won the election for governor with 48% of the vote.  Republican Kenneth Cuccinelli received 45.5% and Libertarian, or so called Libertarian, Robert Sarvis received 6.6%.  (1)  Many of the so-called election experts interpret this election result to mean that the Tea Party is finished and cannot win elections.  They arrive at this interpretation because Cuccinelli ran as a Tea Party Republican.  I believe this is a shallow knee jerk reaction to what occurred in this election. 

First, a look at how much money each candidate spent reveals that McAuliffe spent $32,838,441 whereas Cuccinelli spent $19,125,620.  (2)  McAuliffe spent almost twice as much on the campaign as his Republican opponent.  Since this is an off year election that does not get the attention of elections occurring in a presidential year, it is possible many voters were unaware there was even a Republican on the ballot.  Even if they were, it is also possible they did not understand Cuccinelli’s stance on the issues and based their votes on the smears they heard from the McAuliffe ads. 

McAuliffe also spent much of his money during the last three weeks of the campaign as the Cuccinelli campaign began to run out of money.  (3)  I understand that this is usually the case in campaigns where one candidate massively outspends his or her opponent but the most telling part of this election lies in why the Cuccinelli campaign was out spent by the McAuliffe campaign. 

Cuccinelli staffers pointed to a lack of financial support from the national GOP establishment and a series of public opinion polls suggesting the race was unwinnable.  (4)  This demonstrates the failure of the moderate establishment in the GOP to support its conservative base.  Their belief is that conservatism cannot win elections.  This belief goes back to the landslide defeat of Goldwater in the 1964 election.  I guess the two landslide wins by Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and the taking over of the House of Representatives in 1994 and 2010 do not count.  (5) 

There is also the fact that there was a third party candidate, a so-called libertarian, on the ballot that earned 6.6% of the vote.  I doubt seriously if any of that 6.6% would have voted for McAuliffe so it is highly possible that he siphoned enough votes away from Cuccinelli to cost him this election.  Even staunch libertarian Ron Paul called anyone voting for so-called libertarian Robert Sarvis insane.  He based his opinion on Sarvis’ support of a “mileage tax” in Virginia that would require people to install a GPS device in their own personal vehicles, hardly something a true libertarian would support.  (6) 

In addition, most of Sarvis’ funding came from a known Democrat bundler.  (7)  Following the money in this case reveals that the Democrats knew McAuliffe could not earn more than 50% of the vote and needed to plant a fake libertarian in the election to insure victory.  This reveals a dangerous strategy the Democrats might use in the 2014 and 2016 elections that conservatives and tea party candidates must be on the lookout for.  We must be sure to follow the money that reveals the third party candidate’s true stance on issues, revealing that they are not genuine. 

The Virginia election was winnable by the GOP if they would have supported their candidate and done a better job of revealing the funding and agenda of the fake libertarian candidate.  Now let us look at what the New Jersey election really meant. 

Governor Chris Christie easily won re-election by a 60.5 to 38 percent margin over his Democrat opponent Barbara Buono.  (8)  This wide margin of victory has prompted the GOP establishment to begin the coronation process for Chris Christie as the 2016 GOP nominee for President, claiming his wide victory margin demonstrates he is the best candidate to retake the White House. 

However, exit polling where pollsters asked voters if they would vote for Christie or Hillary Clinton for president revealed that Hillary Clinton would defeat Christie in New Jersey.  (9)  In other words, the GOP pick, the one they believe has the greatest chance of retaking the White House in 2016 cannot even take his own state, the state in which he is governor.  What would really be interesting is to poll people in Texas to see if they would vote for Christie or just stay home.  With Texas being critical to a GOP Electoral College victory in 2016, I believe this poll would be more revealing. 

The real reason for the large margin of victory by Christie in New Jersey is due to the lack of support by the Democratic Party for Buono.  There was also an extremely low turnout in the election.  (10)  Most of those staying home were probably Democrat voters since the Democrat Party did little to turn out their vote.  This will not be the case in 2016. 

The New Jersey victory by Governor Christie is not indicative of how he would perform as a Presidential candidate in 2016 because the turnout was low and little support was given to the democrat candidate.  The exit polls also show us that the blue state of New Jersey will most likely remain blue in the next presidential election.  Since Romney lost the 2012 election including New Jersey, Christie’s victory in New Jersey is not indicative of his ability to carry states like Ohio and Florida in the 2016 election and due to his speaking out against Senator Cruz during the recent shutdown, we have doubts that he would even perform well in the crucial red state of Texas. 

The bottom line in my opinion is that the Tea Party is alive and well indicated by the near win of Cuccinelli in spite of the lack of support from the GOP and a fake libertarian third party siphoning off votes.  In addition, the strength of Governor Christie is shallow as indicated by the New Jersey exit polls that show that in a presidential election, Christie will not even be able to win in his own state casting doubts on his ability to appeal to Republicans in states like Texas, Ohio, or Florida. 

So take heart fellow Tea Partiers and Political Avengers.  We are going to work hard and shock the electoral world in 2014 and 2016. 

1. New York Times. Va. Governor. www.nytimes.com. [Online] The New York Times, November 6, 2013. [Cited: November 8, 2013.] http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/virginia/map.html.

2. Kaplan, Rebecca. Could Ken Cuccinelli have won the Virginia governor's race? www.cbsnews.com. [Online] CBS News, November 6, 2013. [Cited: November 8, 2013.] http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57611186/could-ken-cuccinelli-have-won-the-virginia-governors-race/.

3. Cillizza, Chris. The single most telling chart of the Virginia governor’s race. www.washingtonpost.com. [Online] The Washington Post, November 4, 2013. [Cited: November 8, 2013.] http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/11/04/the-single-most-telling-chart-of-the-virginia-governors-race/.

4. Kunkle, Fredrick. Finger-pointing after Cuccinelli’s loss in race. www.washingtonpost.com. [Online] The Washington Post, November 6, 2013. [Cited: November 8, 2013.] http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/finger-pointing-after-cuccinellis-loss-in-race/2013/11/06/7e7b57e2-4736-11e3-a196-3544a03c2351_story.html.

5. Winchester, Richard. Country Club Republicans Must Go. www.americanthinker.com. [Online] The American Thinker, October 5, 2013. [Cited: November 8, 2013.] http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/10/m-country_club_republicans_must_go.html.

6. Lee, Tony. RON PAUL: 'INSANE' TO VOTE FOR 'LIBERTARIAN' ROBERT SARVIS. www.breitbart.com. [Online] Brietbart News, November 4, 2013. [Cited: November 8, 2013.] http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/11/04/Ron-Paul-to-Virginians-Insane-to-Vote-for-Libertarian-Robert-Sarvis.

7. Beard, Sterling. Libertarian Candidate in Va. Gubernatorial Contest Bankrolled by Obama Bundler. www.nationalreview.com. [Online] The National Review, November 5, 2013. [Cited: November 8, 2013.] http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/363138/libertarian-candidate-va-gubernatorial-contest-bankrolled-obama-bundler-sterling-beard.

8. Real Clear Politics. New Jersey governor - Christie v. Buono. www.realclearpolitics.com. [Online] Real Clear Politics, November 6, 2013. [Cited: November 8, 2013.] http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_christie_vs_buono-3411.html.

9. Montanaro, Domenico. Exit polls: Clinton beats Christie in N.J. in potential 2016 matchup. firstread.nbcnews.com. [Online] NBC News, November 6, 2013. [Cited: November 8, 2013.] http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/05/21324042-exit-polls-clinton-beats-christie-in-nj-in-potential-2016-matchup.

10. Star-Ledger Staff. Christie-Buono race draws record low turnout for N.J. governor's election. www.nj.com. [Online] NJ.com, November 7, 2013. [Cited: November 8, 2013.] http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/11/christie-buono_race_draws_record_low_turnout_for_nj_governors_election.html.